Rollercoaster for US stock markets as tariff uncertainty puts investors on edge - business live

After holding relatively stable during last week’s global market turmoil, cryptocurrencies have joined the sell-off. Bitcoin, the world’s most popular cryptocurrency dipped below $75,000 Monday morning before seeing a slight rebound, AP reported. Bitcoin’s prices haven’t been this low since just after president Donald Trump’s Election Day victory last year launched a bull run in crypto prices. Trump, whose tariff announcements led to massive stock sell offs, has been a major promoter of the crypto industry and previously took credit when bitcoin’s price broke $100,000 in December. Bitcoin has been on a relatively steady slide in price since Trump took office earlier this year. London’s FTSE 100 is set to close and is likely to see another significant fall. We will bring you the final figures once we get them. President Donald Trump has threatened further tariffs on China if Beijing does not withdraw retaliatory measures, increasing trade war concerns. On his Truth Social network, Trump posted: Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set. Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! Richard Branson has posted on X describing Donald Trump’s tariffs as a “colossal mistake” and has called on the president to reverse his decision. America could be left “facing ruin for years to come”, he said. He posted: The ongoing market response to last week’s US tariff announcement was both predictable and preventable. Even if you agree with the premise of these tariffs, every reasonable effort should be made to give US companies sufficient time to adapt. The billionaire added: This is the moment to own up to a colossal mistake and change course. Otherwise, America will face ruin for years to come A quick recap… It’s turning into another very volatile day in the financial markets, as investors grow more fearful that Donald Trump’s trade war will trigger a recession. European stock markets are in the red in late trading, with the FTSE 100 index down 2.5%, or 205 points, at 7849 points. Germany’s DAX is down 3.5% in early trading, while France’s CAC has lost 4%. It’s been a roller-coaster rise on Wall Street – stocks initially plunged, but then rocketed higher following a report that Trump was considering a 90-day pause to many of his new tariffs. However, that rally fizzled out as the White House denied this claim. Goldman Sachs added to the pressure on the White House, by raising the chances of a US recssion to 45%. JP Morgan’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, warned that it may be “hard to reverse” the effect of Donald Trump’s tariffs, which he said would drive prices higher and make a US recession more likely. Donald Trump supporter and billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman has said the president is losing the confidence of business leaders and should pause his trade war – which could cause an economic collapse while damaging his supporters the most. The turmoil in financial markets today has overshadowed a co-ordinated push by UK regulators to show they are responding to chancellor Rachel Reeves’ demand for them to help spur economic growth. On Monday, the FCA announced it was planning to loosen rules for more than 600 hedge funds, private equity and venture capital firms in a move that it says will “make it easier for firms to enter the market, grow, compete and innovate.” The City regulator said it was looking to raise the threshold at which funds are subject to main rules for the sector, meaning they will only apply to those with more than £5bn under management (compared to €100m previously). That will mean take the number of firms facing more burdensome administrative from around 699 to just 64, its consultation paper suggested. It comes as regulators come renewed pressure to support UK growth. In the City, this has so far meant easing rules on the financial services sector, with Reeves having also encouraged more risk-taking across the industry. The CEO of private equity lobby group, the BVCA, welcomed the move, saying: “More effective, less burdensome regulation will make the UK private capital industry more globally competitive and help it to boost investment from the UK and international investors into growing British businesses. Elsewhere, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) cheered the fact that new consumer protection rules had come into force, which ban fake reviews and drip pricing - where fees are added to the displayed price. The CMA will also be able to decide whether laws have been breached, and decide on compensation and fines, without having to go through the courts. Ofwat, too, has tried to have a moment in the sun, telling water companies to build new reservoirs and other major projects more quickly in the coming years. In a letter to water company bosses, the watchdog said they must find ways to “deliver (projects) more efficiently, effectively and achieve earlier completion”. Here’s a chart showing how US stocks jumped following that dubious report that Donald Trump was considering a 90-day pause to tariffs, but then fell back as the reports were dismissed. The White House says any suggestion that President Donald Trump is considering a 90-day pause in tariffs is “fake news,” CNBC reports. We’ve just seen a wild few minutes in the financial markets, following a confusing report about a possible delay to Trump’s tariffs. After plunging in early trading, Wall Street surged into positive territory. A few minutes ago the S&P 500 index was UP by 1.76% at 5,163 points, a gain of 89 points. However, that rally has now petered out again. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped too – it was briefly up 1.44%, or 551 points, at 38,866 points, having been DOWN over 1,000 points in early trading. But that rally has fizzled out too, leaving the Dow down 747 points (for the next few seconds, anyway). This dizzying roller-coaster follows a suggestion on CNBC that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett has, apparently, suggested that Donald Trump is considering a 90 day pause on tariffs for all countries other than China. That would obviously be a game-changer for the markets, and bolster hopes that negotiations might lead to reductions in the large tariffs announced by Trump last week. However, we haven’t yet managed to stand up exactly what Hassett has said on this point. He WAS asked about the possibility of a 90-day pause on Fox News earlier, but he didn’t explicitly say it was under active consideration. Stocks had briefly bounced back in London too, but the FTSE 100 is currently down 214 points or -2.6% today at 7842 points. The chief executives of some of the world’s biggest banks have reportedly held private talks about the carnage in financial markets and the global economy precipitated by President Donald Trump’s new tariffs. Sky News has learnt that bosses from lenders including Bank of America, Barclays, Citi and HSBC Holdings held a call on Sunday to discuss the ongoing chaos as plunging equity markets reflect fears of a worldwide recession. Thet add: Sources said that Sunday’s call was convened by the Bank Policy Institute, a Washington-based public policy group. Brian Moynihan of BoA, Barclays’ CS Venkatakrishnan and Georges Elhedery of HSBC were among those who took part in the call, according to one overseas bank executive. More here. The current stock market turbulence is “a huge worry”, Professor Costas Milas of the University of Liverpool’s Management School, tells us. Prof Milas suggests there’s a possibility that central banks might need to take action, if the market turmoil continues, which would set an unfortunate precedent … From a historical point of view, investors react to periods of high uncertainty (like the current one) by reducing their exposure or fleeing the stock market altogether and investing in government debt (the so-called “flight to quality“ or “flight to safety“). This means that stock market liquidity will soon dry up and company investments will freeze. If the stock market turbulence continues throughout this week, the Fed, Bank of England and ECB might be forced to act together by cutting interest rates before the Easter break. If this was what Trump wanted, then he will get the message that he can always get his way towards dictating interest rates through, for instance, tariff threats... For the third day running, financial markets are a hefty sea of red across the globe. In London, the FTSE 100 is falling deeper into the red as investors watch stocks open sharply lower in New York. Professor of Financial Accounting, Dan Segal from Warwick Business School, says: “Stock markets are in freefall with no clear bottom in sight as President Trump escalates his global trade war. Just last week, sweeping new tariffs were announced, affecting trade with the majority of U.S. partners. Most notably, starting April 5, 2025, a 10% blanket tariff was imposed on all imports from the UK. This comes on top of the existing 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and auto parts. With imports accounting for around 14% of the U.S. GDP, economists warn that the country may be headed straight into stagflation—a rare and damaging combination of rising prices and shrinking economic output. As firms grapple with higher input costs, many will be forced to pass those costs on to consumers. Worse yet, even products not directly targeted by the tariffs may see price hikes as domestic producers raise prices in line with more expensive imports. This domino effect—higher prices, weakened demand, reduced production, and potential job cuts—has sent a shockwave through global markets. The uncertainty surrounding the scope and duration of the tariffs, combined with elevated equity valuations after two years of double-digit returns, has fueled a wave of panic selling. Elon Musk’s Tesla is having another tough day on the stock market. Shares in Tesla are down 8.5% in early trading, making it the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500 index. Other big fallers include chipmaker AMD (-7.5%), and data analytics firm Palantir (7.1%). Ding Ding! The opening bell of the New York stock exchange is ringing out, and stocks are sliding again. The S&P 500 shares index, the broad measure of US shares, is down 3.4% at the start of trading – which takes it into ‘bear market territory’ (more than 20% below its record high). The Dow Jones industrial average shed 1,191 points at the open, a fall of 3.1%, to 37,123 points. And the tech-focused Nasdaq index is down 3.9%. Traders will be reacting to the warnings from the likes of Goldman Sachs that the trade war increases the risks of a US recession, with Donald Trump not showing any signs of backing down. Bloomberg points out that Wall Street has lost around 13% of its value since Thursday, which is the third-worst three-day run ever, after the early days of Covid-19 in March 2020, and during the 2008 financial crisis. Donald Trump has confirmed that he spoke with Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba about tariffs. Posting on Truth Social, Trump says: Countries from all over the World are talking to us. Tough but fair parameters are being set. Spoke to the Japanese Prime Minister this morning. He is sending a top team to negotiate! They have treated the U.S. very poorly on Trade. They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other “things.” It all has to change, but especially with CHINA!!! Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba has said he told US president Donald Trump in a telephone call that his tariff policies are extremely disappointing and urged him to rethink. Ishiba told reporters in Tokyo: “I’ve told the President that Japan has been the biggest investor in the United States for five straight years and the tariff policies could hurt our Japanese companies’ investment capabilities.” Ishiba also said he agreed with Trump to continue constructive dialogue on the issue. Here’s a video of today’s press briefing at the Chinese foreign ministry: US central bank policymakers will get a chance to discuss the market mayhem later today, when they meet. The Federal Reserve is holding a “Closed Board Meeting” later today, in Washington, DC, for Fed board governors. There’s only one item listed under ‘matters to be considered’: 1) Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks. The meeting has caused a little stir online and in social media, with claims that this is an emergency meeting to address the market meltdown. However, the details of the meeting are dated 3 April, which is last Thursday, indicating it is not an emergency reaction to the slump on Friday and today. Donald Trump’s economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, has pushed back against criticism of the president’s trade policies. Speaking on Fox News, Hassett says that more than 50 countries are in negotiations with the president, pointing out that Taiwan ‘reached out’ overnight, and that the prime minister of Israel is visiting the White House today. Hassett also argues that critics such as investor Bill Ackman should ‘ease off the rhetoric’. He says that the new 10% baseline tariff only applies to 14% of US GDP, while the remaining 86% will benefit from “deregulation and tax cuts”. Asked about Ackman’s warning overnight that the US risks a ‘self-induced, economic nuclear winter unless there is a time-out on tariffs, Hassett insists: The idea that it’s going to be a nuclear winter, or something like that, is completely irresponsible rhetoric. The oil price is wallowing around its lowest level in four years. Brent crude is down 2.5% today at below $64 per barrel, a level last seen in April 2021. Motoring bodies are pushing retailers to cut petrol and diesel prices in response. RAC head of policy Simon Williams says: “With oil tumbling to its lowest price for four years, drivers ought to see cuts of up to 6p a litre at the pumps ahead of the notoriously busy Easter weekend on the roads. “As long as the barrel carries on trading around or below the $65 mark, retailers will be obliged to pass on the savings they’re benefitting from to their customers on the forecourt. The RAC believes they should be motivated to do so as they continue to be scrutinised by the Competition and Markets Authority, which only a week ago reported that it’s still concerned about a lack of competition in fuel retailing. “Petrol should drop from its current UK average of 136p to 130p a litre and diesel from 143p to 137p. If unleaded were to fall to that level, it would be the cheapest since summer 2021. Diesel hasn’t been that low since September that year.” The pound has slipped to a five-week low against the US dollar today, as investors continues to shun riskier assets. Sterling is down three quarters of a cent against the dollar today, at $1.281, its weakest point since 5 March. Traders have been piling into traditional safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc. The last few days of heavy losses in the markets will have been alarming for savers and investors. Ed Monk, associate director at investment manager Fidelity International, suggests it would be a mistake to panic. “The launch of trade tariffs by the United States on its international partners has spooked markets and pension savers may have already seen an alarming fall in the value of their retirement fund. There are lots of reasons, however, why they may not need to worry - and why panicking now is likely to be the worst response. “The true impact of the movements depends on how long you have until you need to access your pension money. Anyone still with many years until they need their pension money - at least 10 years - can probably afford to relax more in response to these developments. If your pension investments lose value in the short-term there will be plenty of time for those losses to be recovered. Money held in a pension cannot typically be accessed before age 55 anyway (rising to age 57 from April 2028) so there is no need to sell investments and crystalise a loss - you can just wait it out. “What’s more, if you still have many years of pension contributions ahead of you, losses now can actually work in your favour because they allow you to buy assets at lower values. This can boost your returns in the long run. “If you’re a bit closer to retirement the concern is that steep losses won’t have time to recover. Yet many pension savers in this position will enjoy some protection from the stock market falls because they hold a proportion of their money in lower-risk assets like Bonds and cash. After a long period in which bonds have disappointed, they have performed the role of unlikely saviour in the recent market sell-off. Fears of an economic slowdown has seen a flight to the safety of bonds pushing up prices. Many workplace pension schemes will automatically increase your allocation to bonds in the run up to retirement to protect against precisely the sudden losses for shares that we have seen this year. “For those already in retirement with a fund still invested, temporarily reducing the amount of income taken from a pension may be a useful way to lessen the effect of market activities. If investors can push through the short-term downturn by doing this and benefit from an eventual recovery there is the chance to navigate the choppy waters without eating into your capital. Withdrawing a fixed amount in this current environment will erode savings quicker if your investments are down. If you can live off the natural yield this may be more suitable because it won’t deplete the investment itself and when the market does turn around the capital will still be there.” Capital Economics have been trying to calculate “The economic consequences of Mr Trump” (a nod to JM Keynes’s famous articles about Winston Churchill). Their chief economist, Neil Shearing, has been “looking for clarity in the tariffs chaos”, and warns that some of the damage will be permanent, even if Trump relents on some of his tariffs. Quantifying the economic cost of Trump’s tariffs is challenging, with much dependent on their size, permanence and how countries retaliate. However, even if tariff rates are negotiated down to the 10% baseline, investors can expect lower global growth, elevated US recession risks and a Fed that’s constrained by the higher inflation that these levies will fan. Trump’s tariffs are also a major test for globalisation, though its deep roots – spanning trade, investment, and labour flows – will likely remain resilient. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, captures the mood in the markets today: Markets are in a mess and are likely to stay that way for now. We are in a phase that anything within equities which held up well through the end of last week is getting hit today. The volatility in currencies and commodities is making sure that there is no hiding place other than bonds, and even then, credit spreads are a concern. There are few signs of capitulation yet and nothing positive coming on the tariff front to allay worse fears of their impact on the global economy. Although, it changes by the hour and some sort of bounce may not be far off given the scale of the equity market falls. Donald Trump has delivered a defiant defence of the economic situation, posting this on his Truth Social account: Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, and the long time abused USA is bringing in Billions of Dollars a week from the abusing countries on Tariffs that are already in place. This is despite the fact that the biggest abuser of them all, China, whose markets are crashing, just raised its Tariffs by 34%, on top of its long term ridiculously high Tariffs (Plus!), not acknowledging my warning for abusing countries not to retaliate. They’ve made enough, for decades, taking advantage of the Good OL’ USA! Our past “leaders” are to blame for allowing this, and so much else, to happen to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Factcheck: Trump is correct about the oil price, it’s down 2.5% today, hit by recession fears. Interest rates, as measured by the yields on US Treasury bonds have also fallen, yes, which will cut the cost of issuing new debt. “NO INFLATION” is pushing it, though – the CPI inflation rate rose by 2.8% in the year to February with the “food at home index” up 1.9% over the last 12 months. And the US won’t be “bringing in” billions of dollars a week from its new tariffs, as they are paid by American companies and individuals when they import goods. The importers could choose to cut their prices, to effectively pay the tariff, but I don’t think we have proof this is happening…. But yes, China’s markets did tumble today, with the CSI 300 index losing over 7%. After a very choppy morning, European stocks are still deep in the red – but they have also recovered some of their earlier losses. In London, the FTSE 100 share index is now down 3.5%, or 284 points lower, at 7772 points. That would be its lowest closing level in a year, just five weeks after it hit a record high over 8,900 points! But this is also a recovery from the plunge this morning, that saw the FTSE 100 slump by 6%. Indeed, we now have a few risers on the FTSE 100 today – including housebuilder Taylor Wimpey, Lloyds Banking Group and gambling firm Entain. Across Europe, the picture is less grim too. Germany’s DAX, for example, is currently down 4% – having shed 10% of its value at one stage this morning. Investors may be cheered by the news that Wall Street is not expected to plunge quite as much as initially feared – S&P 500 futures are currently down 1.7%…. Reason to be cheerful: Morgan Stanley points out that, although the equity market is plunging, the credit market reaction has been fairly tempered, my colleague Richard Partington writes. The usual correlation between equity market losses and bond market gains has returned - government bonds are rallying on the rush to safe havens, and amid expectations of a recession. Morgan Stanley says corporate balance sheets have entered the latest period of turbulence in pretty good shape. That should be reassuring that the market meltdown ought not worsen further (that’s Richard’s interpretation...) Morgan Stanley’s note says: In the context of credit as the canary in the coal mine, we would highlight that in the recent instances where credit has played that role (the slowdowns in 2015/2018/2020, for example), there were signs of credit market excess (rising leverage, deteriorating balance sheet metrics). In stark contrast, we are entering this period of turbulence with healthy corporate balance sheets, muted M&A/LBO activity, and little credit market excess. In addition, the last few years have seen significant inflows to credit from yield-based buyers – US life insurance companies with sticky liabilities that are unlikely to see redemptions based on market moves. Largely for these reasons, new issue markets remain open, even for sub-IG [investment grade] borrowers. We would watch access to new issue markets, particularly for high-quality borrowers, as a barometer of credit markets freezing up. The Bank of England’s most recent financial stability report also contains some reasons to be cheerful - globally, it found corporate and household balance sheets had remained resilient in aggregate, despite the recent dramatic increase in debt servicing costs. The BoE said last November that UK corporate and household debt vulnerabilities remain low, explaining: With corporate net debt to earnings ratios of around 125% - substantially below pandemic highs of 172% and post global financial crisis highs of 235%. “This reduces the risk that indebted corporates would materially amplify a shock. However, earnings, cash reserves and debt holdings are not evenly distributed among firms, so this aggregate picture can mask vulnerabilities within particular firms and sectors.” Although the losses of recent days have been very painful for investors large and small, the market meltdown still has a way to go to match the crash of October 1987. Our former economics editor Larry Elliott (a veteran of a fair few market crashes) reminds me. Then, on the Monday and Tuesday the FTSE 100 fell by 23% in two days. The Dow dropped by 22% on the Monday. In the days before modern communication Alan Greenspan, the newly appointed Fed chair, was on a plane from Washington while the carnage was happening. When he reached his destination (Dallas from memory) he asked how the Dow had finished. Down 508 he was told. Mistakenly, Greenspan thought that meant down 5.08 points and assumed the Dow had had a late bounce as it sometimes does after a turbulent day. His relief was short lived! Greenspan wrote more about this dramatic day, here. We’re well into the third day of the market meltdown after Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement last Wednesday. Bloomberg have calculated that around $9.5trn has been wiped off global share prices since the US president announced new trade levies on on friends, foes, and the penguins living on barren, uninhabited volcanic islands near Antarctica. They explain: The carnage in financial markets worsened on Monday with stressed-out investors abandoning hopes that President Donald Trump would change his tariff policy. Stocks tumbled, taking the three-day wipeout in global equity value to about $9.5 trillion. S&P 500 equity futures signaled a 3% loss and the VIX Index spiked above 50. Europe’s Stoxx 600 tumbled 5%. Asia capped the worst day since 2008. Treasuries and the yen gained as investors sought refuge. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, has warned that Donald Trump’s new tariffs will hurt growth and drive up prices for consumers. In his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon – one of the most influential voices on Wall Street – says: The recent tariffs will likely increase inflation and are causing many to consider a greater probability of a recession. And even with the recent decline in market values, prices remain relatively high. These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain very cautious. [Dimon is clearly correct – with Goldman Sachs lifting their US recession chances today] In his letter, Dimon also warns that the US economy had already begun weakening before the recent tariff announcement. In the short term, he says, tariffs will have “inflationary outcomes”, not only on imported goods but on domestic prices, as input costs rise and demand increases on domestic products. [Reminder: tariffs are paid by the importer of foreign goods, not the overseas producer]. Dimon says: How this plays out on different products will partially depend on their substitutability and price elasticity. Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth. Elon Musk appears to be signalling his displeasure with Donald Trump’s trade war. Over the weekend, the Tesla boss turned government official said he backed eventually ending all tariffs and creating a free-trade zone between the U.S. and the European Union. And this morning, Musk has doubled down by posting a video of economist Milton Friedman using the example of the humble pencil as an example of how the free market creates the global cooperation needed produce goods cheaply and efficiently. Trump’s “medicine” has left equities with a bitter taste, reports Thomas Mathews, Head of Markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, who says: The carnage in global equity markets has continued after President Trump doubled down on his tariff plans, noting that “sometimes you have to take a medicine to fix something”. We still think he will lower the dosage by paring back his tariffs. But, if he doesn’t, equities could get a lot sicker yet. Wall Street could tumble into a bear market today, judging by the futures markets. The S&P 500 index is currently on track to fall around 3.5% when trading resumes, according to the futures market, with investors expected to hammer the sell button again. Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, said this morning: S&P 500 futures continued to collapse in early trading this morning, along with global indices, falling nearly 5%. Nasdaq 100 futures also fell nearly 6% at the same time. S&P 500 futures officially entered bear territory today, having fallen more than 22% from their all-time highs. US markets are set to dive this week in the bear market, amid gloomy prospects surrounding the US trade war and weak signals regarding the possibility of a settlement to the conflict. Tariffs are not new, and markets reacted strongly to them last week. However, Trump’s indications over the weekend that he will maintain the tariffs further frustrate markets, which are clinging to hope for a de-escalation. Trump’s weekend golfing after the widespread market collapses could also be interpreted as a sign of indifference – which he has denied – to the consequences of his recent actions, suggesting he may be sticking to his plan. Furthermore, although many leaders of countries affected by the tariffs are inclined to negotiate and make steps that would reduce the tariffs imposed on them, recent signs and reports do not suggest any progress toward a diplomatic solution to the trade war. For example, China and the United States have been unable to move forward on the tariff negotiations, and these efforts have failed, ending up in the imposition of massive tariffs on China, which has responded with massive counter-tariffs. This escalation and counter-escalation keeps hope for negotiations slim, according to the Wall Street Journal. We’ve reached the scale in the crisis when central banks are pondering whether to intervene in the markets. Over in Jakarta, Indonesia’s central bank said today it would “intervene aggressively” in domestic foreign exchange markets when they re-open on Tuesday for the first time since new U.S. tariffs were announced, Bloomberg reports. Bank Indonesia said in a statement that it had already intervened offshore in Asia, European and New York curency markets. It added: “Bank Indonesia’s series of measures are aimed at stabilising the rupiah exchange rate and maintaining the confidence of market participants and investors in Indonesia.” In Taipei, Taiwan’s central bank said it will intervene if necessary to ensure the stability of the Taiwan dollar exchange rate, ading that it has “sufficient ability” to deal with fluctuations. We are now back on ‘US recession watch’ thanks to Trump’s tariffs, reports. Dario Perkins, City economist at TS Lombard. Perkins (inventor of the “moron risk premium” concept during the UK bond market crash under Liz Truss), told clients: With Liberation Day causing shockwaves across global markets (our expectations were low but holy…) we are now firmly back on US recession watch. Prices will rise, real incomes will drop, and it will be the labour market that determines what happens after that. As always, employment is the key to US recessions. To no-one’s surprise, economic confidence across the eurozone has slumped this month. The Sentix Investor Confidence Index has tumbled to -19.5 points, its lowest level since October 2023, down from -2.9 in March. Sentix, the research group, explains that “Trump’s tariff hammer” has hammered optimism, with economic expectations for the eurozone now falling at a record pace. The report adds: US economic expectations fell to their lowest level since October 2008, while the tariff shock fuelled fears of a global recession. Gas prices are weakening today too, a sign that the markets are pricing in weaker economic growth and less demand for energy. The month-ahead price of UK gas has fallen by 3.6%, to 85.5p per therm, the lowest since last September. European gas prices fell more sharply; their benchmark futures fell as much as 8% on Monday after wiping out more more than 10% last week, Bloomberg reports, adding: Fears that US President Donald Trump’s trade restrictions will slow down the economy have caused commodity prices to plummet, with traders expecting it could spell less demand for energy shipments. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson has warned that threats and pressure are not the right way to deal with China, after describing Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” as bullying. Spokesperson Lin Jian told a press conference today that the tariffs are “typical unilateralism and protectionism, and economic bullying”, Reuters reports, adding: “The abuse of tariffs by the United States is tantamount to depriving countries, especially those in the Global South, of their right to development.” Goldman Sachs has slashed its forecast for US economic growth this year, and warned there is a growing risk that America falls into recession in the next year. Goldman has lowered its 2025 growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.5%, due to fears that Donald Trump will raise tariffs by much more than it had expected. In a note titled “US Daily: Countdown to Recession”, Goldman also lifted its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, following “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty” following Trump’s tariff announcements. Goldman analysts explain that they had expected the White House to announce a more aggressive tariff at first and then scale it back; instead, the new tariffs scheduled for 9 April would lift the effective tariff rate by more than expected. They say: First, financial conditions tightened more aggressively than we had expected in response to the White House’s announcement of its “reciprocal” tariff and the Chinese government’s announcement of its retaliatory tariffs on US exports. This is partly because both announcements were more aggressive than expected. But it also suggests that the sensitivity of financial conditions to incremental tariffs is rebounding from the moderate levels of early 2025 toward the more outsized levels observed in the 2018-2019 trade war. Second, our analysis of reduced foreign tourism to the US and foreign consumer boycotts suggests an additional 0.1-0.2pp hit to GDP growth in 2025. Our forecast had already assumed forceful retaliation by foreign governments, but we had not accounted for the effects of a consumer-led response. Third, measures of policy uncertainty have spiked to levels far above those reached during the last trade war. The effects of policy uncertainty are likely to be much larger than in the first trade war because far more US companies are likely to be affected by uncertainty about the much larger and broader US and foreign tariffs this time, and some could also be affected by uncertainty about other policy areas, such as fiscal and immigration policy. Wall Street’s ‘fear index’ is surging higher again today. The VIX index, which measures market volatility and uncertainty, has almost doubled today to around 60 points. It’s at its highest level since last August, when US recession fears hit markets. [I initially thought it was the highest since March 2020, but it seems we’re not there yet….] Most people are investors through their pensions, even if not actively, so the sell-off could have an impact on their retirement funds. And even if they don’t have a pension, the sharp drop in share prices across the world could make a difference to their finances. On Friday my colleague Hilary Osborne took a look at what the turmoil means for people in the UK - you’ll find it here: In Taiwan, stocks plummeted so fast on Monday that it triggered the 10% circuit breaker early in the morning, my colleagues Jason Tzu Kuan Lu and Helen Davidson report from Taipei. The huge falls were driven by Taiwan tech giants TSMC and Foxconn. Playing the stock market is hugely popular in Taiwan, with about 5.6m of Taiwan’s 24m people actively trading. Individual investors accounted for more than 55% of all transactions in June 2024, according to the Taiwan stock exchange. It means there are a lot of mum and dad investors out there, reeling from the global economic fallout. At the Muzha market on the outskirts of Taipei, 65-year-old Mr T said he felt like the morning’s routing was an inevitable correction to market rises prior to Trump’s announcement. Monday was the first chance Taiwan’s market had to react to the 32% tariffs he put on the island, having been closed for a national holiday last Thursday and Friday. “Before the holidays, the market was rising, so now it’s just a normal correction. But we can’t predict where the drop will stop,” he told the Guardian. “What’s more concerning is the situation with TSMC’s poor performance in the U.S. When TSMC is struggling, everyone else is, too.” Zhou Tzu-wei, a 34-year-old producer in Taiwan said he’d seen some “plummeting” of the market in the past “but nothing as bad as today”. ““Almost everything is dropped to the limitation of stock price (10%).It feels like the market just closed seconds after its opening. Even companies with factories in the U.S. took a hit. Only basic necessities like gas were less affected (and actually went up).” Hou Dun-yi, a Taiwan-based actor, said he tried to clear his holdings before the open but “couldn’t sell a single share”. “I don’t know if something like this has ever happened in the history of the Taiwan stock market. I’m not sure what will happen next, either. Trump is just too unpredictable. Anyway, I plan to sell all my stocks and take a break from trading. I’m going to read more books, do some research, and focus on living with the cash I have for now.” City traders have been raising their bets that the Bank of England cuts interest rates several times this year. The money markets now price in a 92% likelihood that the BoE cuts Bank rate at its next meeting in early May. by a quarter of one percentage point (or 25 basis points). For the rest of 2025 as a whole, 86 basis points of cuts are priced in – which implies that three quarter-point cuts are expected (most likely in May, August, and November), with the possibility of a fourth. After a frenzied opening 45 minutes, the London stock market remains deep, deep in the red, although it’s a little higher than during its panicky opening plunge. The FTSE 100 index is currently down 370 points at 7685 points, which wipes 4.5% off the value of the largest listed companies in the City, Every stock on the FTSE 100 is down today. Here are the top fallers (it’s a fast-changing list, though!) Engineering firm Melrose: – 8.7% Engineering firm Babcock: – 8.3% Asset manager Polar Capital: -8.5% Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust: – 8.1% Bank Barclays: -8% Copper miner Antofagasta: -7.8% Asset manager Pershing Square: -7.6% Asset manager St James’s Place: -7.3% Retailer JD Sports: -7.3% Enginereering firm Rolls-Royce: – 6.9% The market mayhem is a sign that investors are questioning the competence of the Trump White House, explains Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management: Over the weekend, US administration officials gave contradictory statements on trade taxes, causing investors to question the existence of a masterplan. Attempts to justify attacks on the Heard Island penguins only emphasized the peculiarity of the tariff formula. US President Trump took time from their golf weekend to twice post that equity declines were “on purpose”. Investors had assumed Trump’s trade taxes were a bargaining tool, as during the first term. That depends on competent policymaking to balance the benefits of trade negotiations against the damage of tariffs. If the competence of policymaking is questioned, markets will worry that economic damage will be lasting. Stocks across Europe have cratered to their lowest level since December 2023. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index, which tracks the six hundred largest companies in Europe, has slumped by over 6% this morning, to its lowest level since early December 2023. Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says: “China is clearly in the mood for the fight, and with the world’s two largest economies at loggerheads, the result has been ugly for investors. Retaliatory tariffs announced on Friday by China sent markets into another tailspin, while comments from President Trump over the weekend will do little to assuage the situation, with US futures already pointing to another difficult trading session to come. The futures market indicates the US S&P 500 will slump by another 3.5% when trading begins later today, with the tech-focused Nasdaq index on track for a 4.5% tumble. Across Europe, stock markets are in freefall. In Frankfurt, Germany’s DAX index has fallen by 10% at the start of trading, while France’s CAC has lost 6.6%, and the Italian FTSE MIB is down 5.7%. In percentage and points terms, this morning’s 6% plunge would be the worst day for the FTSE 100 since March 2020, when markets crashed early in the Covid-19 pandemic. Britain’s stock market has plunged deep into the red at the start of trading. Stocks are sliding sharply again, adding to last week’s heavy losses, as investors grow more fearful that Donald Trump’s trade policies will lead to recession. In London, the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip stocks has plunged by 488 points, or 6%, taking the index down to 7566 points, its lowest level since February 2024. That’s an even more severe plunge than the near-5% wipeout on Friday after China retaliated against the US with its own new tariffs. Every share on the FTSE 100 is in the red, with UK manufacturing firm Rolls-Royce tumbling by 13%. Miners, banks, and investment firms are also in the top fallers. There is widespread disappointment this morning that there was no progress on US trade tariffs over the weekend, with Trump described his new tariffs as necessary ‘medicine’. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says investors are desperate to see ‘concrete action’, such as a pause or u-turn on Trump’s tariffs. This market is looking for concrete action, not talk of action. The best panacea for financial markets right now would be a pause or reversal from the US on its tariff programme. Australia’s stock market has recorded its worst session since the Covid-19 pandemic rattled markets five years ago. The S&P/ASX 200 index has closed down 4.2%, and is now almost 15% off its all-time high set in February. “Rarely if ever have the next few days been so important,” Deutsche Bank warned clients this morning. In a new research note, Deutsche point out that the shock since “Liberation Day” last Wednesday has led to the fourth worst two-day market slump since the second world war – with only the 1987 crash, the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the initial Covid panic seeing worse back-to-back days. Deutsche warn that the disruption is the biggest since Richard Nixon took America off the gold standard in 1971: It represents the biggest shock to the global trading system since the Bretton Woods collapse in 1971 and will represent the largest tax increase for the US consumer since the 1968 Revenue and Expenditure Control Act that came during the Vietnam War. It’s hard to say we weren’t warned though. Trump has been pretty clear as to his views on tariffs for years, if not decades, and his actions and words pre and post inauguration have been quite clear, as have those of his Administration. However the scale of the “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded expectations, and the arbitrary way they were calibrated was a major shock and creates a significant credibility issue which is just as unsettling to global markets as the action itself. Deutsche add that it is important to watch whether the US Administration tries to find “an elegant off-ramp or doubles down” on its trade policy, Deutsche add: This is crucial as it will dictate more things than just trade. It will impact the whole relationship between the US and the RoW [rest of the world] in everything that is important, including defence, geopolitics and the multi-lateral rules-based world order. So where trade goes from here will influence everything else. A US Administration that doubles down will have immense global implications for 2025 and the years and decades ahead. At the moment there are few signs they are backing down which will likely signal more market turmoil ahead. Rarely if ever have the next few days been so important. Overnight, billionaire investor Bill Ackman urged Donald Trump to pause his new global tariffs, warning. Ackman, who supported Trump during last year’s presidential race, posted on X that it would be “economic nuclear war” for the US to impose its new retaliatory tariffs on many trading partners on 9 April, as planned. In a sign of Wall Street’s deep, growing anxiety about the trade war, Ackman says: But, by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital. The president has an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country. Ackman also alleged that US Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick was conflicted because of his relationship with financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, due to its exposure to the bond market (where price have been rising in the market crisis). Ackman claimed: I just figured out why @howardlutnick is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing. He and Cantor are long bonds. He profits when our economy implodes. It’s a bad idea to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered long fixed income. It’s an irreconcilable conflict of interest. Lutnick stepped down as chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald when he was confirmed as Commerce secretary, with two of his sons taking top positions at the firm. European stock markets are heading for fresh heavy losses when bourses open in an hour’s time, following the slump in Asia-Pacific markets today. The Eurostoxx 50 index, of Europe’s 50 largest companies, is on track to fall round 4%. The futures market also indicates the UK’s main share index, the FTSE 100, could fall 2% at the open, at 8am. Wall Street is also on track for another rout. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, has the details: Wherever we look this morning, it’s a bloodbath. The S&P500 is down by almost 4% at the time of writing, Nasdaq futures are down by more than 4%, same for the European futures and the week hasn’t even started yet For those just catching up with today’s rout of Asian financial markets, here’s a recap of the continuing fallout from Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs amid fears of an escalating global trade war and a potential US recession. The US president said foreign governments would have to pay “a lot of money” to lift tariffs that he characterised as “medicine” as markets in Asia plunged in early trading on Monday, continuing a two-day sell off that wiped almost $5tn off the value of global stock markets last week. Trump indicated he was not concerned about the market losses, telling reporters late on Sunday: “I don’t want anything to go down. But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.” Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index tumbled nearly 9% as concerns over a tariff-induced global recession continued to rip through markets on Monday, reaching 30,792.74 for the first time since October 2023. Prime minister Shigeru Ishiba said his government would continue to ask Trump to lower tariffs but that results “won’t come overnight”. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks dived, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 8% in early trade. Shares in Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Tencent fell more than 8%. Taiwan’s stock exchange fell almost 10% on the Monday open, the first day of trading since the tariffs were announced. The drop marked the largest one-day point and percentage loss on record, according to local media. Trading on South Korea’s Kospi index was halted for five minutes as stocks plummeted. Australian shares were also sharply lower, with more than $160bn wiped off the markets in early trading. The US president said he had spoken to leaders from Europe and Asia over the weekend, who hope to convince him to lower tariffs that are as high as 50% and due to take effect this week. “They are coming to the table. They want to talk but there’s no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis,” Trump said. Trump’s tariff announcement last week jolted economies around the world, triggering retaliatory levies from China. Wall Street stock futures opened sharply lower on Sunday, in a sign of further turbulence after the worst week for US stocks since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis five years ago. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said more than 50 nations had started negotiations with the US since last Wednesday’s tariffs announcement. – With reporting by Helen Davidson and agencies Donald Trump’s tariff measures could slow euro area economic growth by between 0.5 and 1 percentage points, the Greek central bank governor has told the Financial Times in an interview published on Monday Yannis Stournaras’s comments come against the backdrop of European Union countries weighing approval of a first set of targeted countermeasures on up to $28bn of US imports from dental floss to diamonds in the coming days, Reuters reports. The 27-nation bloc faces 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminium and cars and reciprocal tariffs of 20% from Wednesday for almost all other goods. In an interview with the newspaper, Stournaras warned that the looming global trade war risk sparking a large “negative demand shock” in the Eurozone that could weigh heavily on Europe’s economic growth. He told the FT: A notable adverse impact on growth could lead to activity being much weaker than expected, dragging inflation below our targets. The European Central Bank has estimated that a blanket U.S. tariff of 25% on European imports would lower euro zone growth by 0.3 percentage points in the first year. EU counter-tariffs on the US would raise this to half a percentage point. Donald Trump has said he won’t back down on his sweeping tariffs on imports from most of the world unless countries even out their trade with the US, digging in on his plans to implement the levies that have sent financial markets reeling and raised fears of a recession. Here’s video footage of the US president telling media he doesn’t want global markets to fall but also that he isn’t concerned about the huge sell-off, and “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something”. Howmet Aerospace, which supplies parts for planes built by Airbus and Boeing, may halt some shipments if they are impacted by Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to a letter seen by Reuters. The Pittsburgh-based Howmet said in the letter to customers that it had declared a force majeure event – a legal practice that allows parties to a contract to avoid their obligations if hit by unavoidable and unpredictable external circumstances. The news agency quoted the company as writing in the letter: “Howmet will be excused from supplying any products or services that are impacted by this declared national emergency and/or the tariff executive order.” Howmet declined to comment. Howmet is a supplier of critical metal components used across the $150bn jetliner industry. Boeing and Airbus did not immediately reply to Reuters’ requests for comment on the letter, which three industry sources said went to multiple firms across the aerospace sector. It appeared to be the first such manoeuvre by a major aerospace company since the tariff announcement, one of the sources said. In the UK, Keir Starmer has said he wants to shelter Britain from the storm of Donald Trump’s escalating trade wars. Governments the world over are considering how best to respond to the turmoil unleashed on the global economy by the US president last week – and so far Britain has taken a measured approach, writes Richard Partington. That approach contrasts with the promises of retaliation from the European Union, China and Canada. For the British prime minister, however, there are tough economic and political considerations to weigh up. Click here for Partington’s report outlining the case for retaliation and the benefits of appeasement: India’s stock markets were among those that plunged on Monday morning in response to Trump’s tariffs and the wider volatility they have triggered across Asian markets. India’s BSE’s 30-share Sensex plunged 5.19% while the broader Nifty tumbled 5%. Analysts said that the escalating global trade war had unsettled Indian investors and intensified fears of an economic downturn impacting India. However, India found itself less rattled than other Asian countries after the announcement it would now face a 27% tariff on all goods brought into the US. Exports to the US represent just 2% of India’s GDP, meaning that while certain industrial sectors will take a hit, it’s unlikely to trigger a wider recession. As a country of 1.4 billion people, the Indian market itself is also huge and so industries could pivot to selling domestically. The exemption of two of India’s biggest exports – pharmaceuticals and energy – from tariffs has also softened the blow. Some analysts even presented the situation as a distinct advantage for India over its biggest manufacturing competitors such as China, Vietnam and Bangladesh which have been slapped with much higher tariffs by Trump. There is a suggestion that phone companies such as Samsung and Apple might move more production to India, over China and Vietnam, to take advantage of lower tariffs. It could also help India overtake Bangladesh’s dominance over the garment sector. Samsung Electronics’ television business is expected to be less affected by US tariffs than rivals because its TVs are mainly produced in Mexico, an executive said on Monday. However, the world’s top TV maker will still continue to watch the changing US tariff policy, and depending on tariffs, it plans to allocate production accordingly across about 10 production bases around the world, Yong Seok-woo, president of Samsung’s visual display business, says in a Reuters report. Mexico largely escaped Trump’s new 10% global baseline tariff and steeper “reciprocal tariffs” for many trading partners on Wednesday. In contrast, China will be hit with a 34% US tariff, on top of the 20% previously imposed earlier this year, bringing the total new levies to 54%. Continued from last post with more reaction from analysts to Monday’s continuation of the two-day selloff that wiped trillions of dollars from global equity values. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO Financial markets are suffering an absolutely brutal selloff as Asian trading hours begin. After a series of Trump administration officials refused to countenance a reversal in the president’s seriously flawed tariff plans over the weekend, investors are marking down US assets and lowering global growth forecasts even further. A flight to safety is under way in currency markets, with the yen and euro climbing against the dollar. SEAN CALLOW, SENIOR FX ANALYST, ITC MARKETS, SYDNEY It will be all hands on deck for Asian policymakers today, but they know that they have limited control over market panic. The only real circuit breaker is President Trump’s iPhone and he is showing little sign that the market selloff is bothering him enough to reconsider a policy stance he has believed in for decades. DAVID SEIF, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR DEVELOPED MARKETS, NOMURA, NEW YORK In market selloffs like this, panic and forced selling via margin calls can dominate for a while. That’s not to say that it isn’t based on a very real negative event, which is these tariffs. But I think the ensuing selloff can take on a life of its own. Bottom line, I’m not sure when stocks will find a bottom, but I don’t think stocks are returning to their pre-April 2 levels any time soon. ANINDA MITRA, HEAD OF ASIA MACRO STRATEGY, BNY INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, SINGAPORE The market may be justifiably concerned but it appears to be pricing in the worst of an adverse trajectory of trade policy shifts in the US. In this context, any (eventual) negotiated and downward adjustments in bilateral tariffs or a bigger-than-expected US fiscal offset or a quicker-than-expected Fed policy pivot may counter some of the headwinds. But until there is greater visibility in bilateral negotiations and tariff rollbacks, and other macro policy support, market volatility may stay elevated. Continued from last post: JASON WONG, SENIOR MARKET STRATEGIST, BNZ, WELLINGTON Trump’s not blinking yet, and his entourage aren’t blinking over the weekend ... but there comes a point, when they do capitulate, and you’re trying to play the market. As to when that might happen – we need some sort of Trump team response before the bleeding is going to stop. KAREN JORRITSMA, HEAD OF EQUITIES, AUSTRALIA, RBC CAPITAL, SYDNEY Trump got us into this. But what can get us out of it? It’s not him, if there’s no clear line of sight here to the exit point for this, or the catalyst for this to be over – that’s my concern. I think he felt he had control, but he hasn’t – he’s lost control. It’s gone too far. The Chinese have got involved ... ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, FAIRFIELD, CONNECTICUT One of the problems is that people were looking for some kind of comment over the weekend from somebody in the administration that would indicate some possible negotiation or maybe a change in the tariffs. But they seemed to dig in their heels so we’re down more than 4%. … People are real nervous about the uncertainty this brings, the potential decline in earnings, the fact the Federal Reserve has said they are going to wait and stay on hold until they get more clarity. If the Fed isn’t coming to the rescue, then who else is going to come to the rescue? People are afraid the worst is yet to come. They’re worried about a market crash. They’re worried about what follows, a recession here domestically and then globally, leading to a possible depression. JOHN MILROY, PRIVATE WEALTH ADVISOR, ORD MINNETT, SYDNEY All the conversations I have had with clients are more about when do we buy something rather than sell. This is leveraged selling that has no choice. I have fear for some of those private credit shops as prices and credit spreads swing wildly. Key in the short term is if China pulls the pin on a big stimulus package directed at consumers. The broader market was already expensive, always had to be a reckoning. Here it is. Next comes the earnings changes. ANGELO KOURKAFAS, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES, ST LOUIS Fear is what continues to drive market action since the April 2nd tariff announcement. I think many investors are fearing the worst-case scenario of a prolonged trade war. Until we get an off-ramp and some indication that we potentially are pivoting to cutting deals to lower tariffs, that sentiment will remain fragile. Continued next post What’s been the reaction of analysts to today’s drubbing of Asian share markets and US stock futures in response to the Trump tariffs? Here’s a range of voices, care of Reuters, on the continuation of a two-day selloff as fears of a global trade war led investors to ramp up bets on the risk of recession and a US interest rate cut as early as next month. TONY SYCAMORE, MARKET ANALYST, IG, SYDNEY Things have gone from bad to worse this morning. The lack of reaction from Trump and from Bessent [the US Treasury secretary], in terms of their concern levels, appearing to be very, very low in terms of the market dislocation. If there isn’t some sort of walking back of the announcements, then we’re heading for a liquidity event and liquidity will get sucked out of these markets big time across all asset classes. We’re already seeing that. We’re going to see obviously the US dollar return to being the kingmaker except against the yen. CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE The lack of any policy response from the Trump administration on the market sell-off is adding to the uncertainty, reinforcing the idea that the current trajectory may remain unchanged in the near term. Unless we see a clear pivot from policymakers, volatility is likely to stay elevated, and the path of least resistance for risk assets remains to the downside. MATTHEW RUBIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CARY STREET PARTNERS, NEW YORK One of the things that clearly clients have more exposure to today is private markets ... there’s a little bit more control there in the private markets of the portfolio because you take out some of the daily trading and the daily volatility. I think that’s important. I wouldn’t call that a refuge, though. This didn’t come out of some sort of exogenous risk that was uncovered. This is being brought on because of the tariffs. And none of us know when we’ll see more clarity or resolution, whether it be further negotiation and whether this is really about negotiation or whether this is about a fundamental change to try to reshape the manufacturing economy here in the US. DEAN FERGIE, DIRECTOR, CYAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, MELBOURNE I expect a lot of panic selling this morning but over the coming days some level of rationality should prevail and we’ll see some buying support come in. The sectors to watch will be the financials/fund managers impacted by global market weakness, and the global discretionary stocks. Continued next post Among the governments already signalling a willingness to engage with the US to avoid Trump’s tariffs, Taiwan’s president has offered zero tariffs as the basis for negotiations. On Sunday Lai Ching-te pledged to remove trade barriers and said Taiwanese companies would raise their US investments. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he would seek a reprieve from a 17% tariff on the country’s goods during a planned meeting with Trump on Monday, Reuters reports. An Indian government official said the country did not plan to retaliate against a 26% tariff and that talks were under way with the US over a possible deal. In Italy, the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni – a Trump ally – pledged on Sunday to shield businesses that suffered damage from a planned 20% tariff on goods from the European Union. Italian wine producers and US importers at a wine fair in Verona on Sunday said business had already slowed and feared more lasting damage. India’s benchmark Nifty 50 is poised to open sharply lower on Monday. The GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 22,089 as of 7:55 am IST, indicating that the blue-chip Nifty 50 will open about 3.6% lower than Friday’s close of 22,904.45, Reuters is reporting. “We see the recent lows around 21,800 get re-tested on the Nifty 50 given this week’s price action,” said Abhishek Goenka, chief executive officer of India Forex and Asset Management. We remain cautious in the near term given the tariff-related uncertainty. Other Asian markets have slumped amid the worries of a global trade war and a US recession triggered by the Trump Administration’s tariffs regime. India’s central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points amid expectations that monetary policy may turn more supportive as the tariffs threaten to hurt the economy. The Nifty 50 is trading about 13% lower than the record high levels hit in late September, as slowing earnings and growth triggered a $27-billion foreign exodus from domestic markets. Meanwhile, India is likely to meet its projected growth target of