Canada election 2025 live: Mark Carney’s Liberal party projected to win after running on anti-Trump platform

The Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is in a tight race to win his seat of Carleton, which he has held for the last seven terms. In protest of the country’s “first past the post” electoral system, activists for electoral reform have added 90 names to the ballot - making the ballot more than a metre-long and creating headaches for Elections Canada and the scrutineers. Early results show Liberal Bruce Fanjoy leading Poilievre by 53% to 43%. Chrystia Freeland, the former deputy prime minister whose resignation set in train the events that eventually led to Justin Trudeau’s own resignation, has been speaking to CBC after she was projected to retain her riding in University-Rosedale in Ontario with 61.5% of the vote. She said the Liberal victory was “a remarkable turnaround” and that she was “delighted by our party’s comeback”, adding that the vote came at “an existential moment for Canada”. Back in December, “people had totally written us off … and now you’re talking about what the strength of our government will be,” she said, adding “kudos to our prime minster Mark Carney … he has been a great campaigner”. Freeland had stood for the Liberal leadership but lost out to Carney. She said that Canadians had “recognised that this was a critical moment for our country” with the question on the ballot being “who can fight for Canada, who can stand up to Donald Trump”. Nathalie Provost, a survivor of the 1989 massacre at Montreal’s École Polytechnique and now a prominent gun control advocate, is expected to win her seat for the Liberals in the riding of Châteauguay-Les Jardins-de-Napierville, in Quebec. Supporters had feared for her candidacy after prime minister Mark Carney managed to mangle both her name and get the location of the massacre wrong in the same sentence at a campaign event in March. Preliminary results have her on 44.5% of the vote. Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a polling firm, has told Reuters the Liberal win hinged on three factors. He said: It was the ‘anybody-but-Conservative’ factor, it was the Trump tariff factor, and then it was the [former prime minister Justin] Trudeau departure ... which enabled a lot of left-of-center voters and traditional Liberal voters to come back to the party. David Lametti, a former Liberal justice minister, is giving the credit for the projected Liberal win to Mark Carney. He told CTV: We were dead and buried in December. Now we are going to form a government. We have turned this around thanks to Mark. Mark Carney, who has never been in parliament before, is projected to win a seat in the Ottawa riding of Nepean – that will make him the first prime minister to hold a seat in Ottawa since the 1880s, according to CBC. Preliminary results have him on 63% of the vote. The Elections Canada website still appears to be experiencing technical difficulties, although results are still going out to news websites via a back-end process. In case you need a refresher on Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada who only recently became prime minister without ever having held a seat in parliament, here’s an extract from our recent profile of him: Carney’s credentials as a political outsider would in normal times have killed his candidacy in Canada but his distance from unpopular incumbent Justin Trudeau and a high-profile banking career played to his advantage, and Carney argues he is the only person prepared to handle Trump. “I know how to manage crises … in a situation like this, you need experience in terms of crisis management, you need negotiating skills,” Carney said during a leadership debate last month. He said in an interview last month: “President Trump probably thinks Canada will cave in. But we are going to stand up to a bully, we’re not going to back down. We’re united and we will retaliate.” Carney has called the threats posed by Trump “the most serious crisis of our lifetime” and said on Sunday that the US wants “our resources, our water, our land, our country”. Daniel Béland, the director of the Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University, described Carney as a “technocrat”. “He’s a boring guy who in general doesn’t have a lot of charisma,” Béland said. However, he noted that Carney’s rigorous competence with no flash may be appealing, given Canada is rattled by Trump’s trade chaos and attacks on its sovereignty. Read on below: A few pics from Liberal party headquarters: Mark Carney’s Liberal party is projected to win the 2025 federal election, but results in a number of key electoral districts are too close to determine if the party will have a majority government, or be held to a minority for the third consecutive election. While the full results aren’t yet in, the Liberals are leading or elected in enough seats to prevent any other party from forming government. Supporters at the Liberal election night party erupted in cheers when multiple networks called the election for the party. The path to victory for the party, left for dead as recently as February, relied heavily on the collapse of the New Democratic party and the Bloc Québécois. Some pictures from the headquarters of the Conservative party: Early results from Quebec suggest a collapse of the separatist Bloc Québécois has benefited the incumbent Liberals. Mark Carney’s Liberals are currently over performing their 2021 federal election result, which produced a minority government. The prospect of a trade war and Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada have given the Liberals a boost in the francophone province. Polls have now closed across Canada. People in several communities in Canada’s Arctic Nunavik region have been unable to vote as Elections Canada struggles to transport its staff due to bad weather, Radio Canada is reporting. Voters in Salluit, Ivujuvik, Tasiujaq, and Puvirnituq were unable to vote, the broadcaster reports. “We have neither ballots nor information on how to proceed [to vote] in this election,” it quoted the mayor of Ivujivik, Adamie Kalingosaid, as saying. Radio Canada said the election agency had confirmed it was attempting to reach several remote communities without specifying which ones. Prime minister Mark Carney and his wife, Diana Fox Carney, watch the results rolling in: Polls have closed in much of Canada, with the vote-rich provinces of Ontario and Quebec already beginning to report results. Already, there is evidence of a dramatic drop in support for the New Democratic party in much of the country, which could boost Liberal hopes of emerging from the night with the most seats. In Quebec, a strong support from the separatist Bloc Québécois could hold both the Liberals or the Conservatives to a minority government. Some insight into the results from Tyler Olsen, a journalist in British Columbia, who posted on X: The NDP vote is what will determine this election. Returns suggest vote total collapsing by as much as 75%. If that holds, the more popular the NDP was any particular area, the better the Liberal will do. Early results from the Atlantic provinces have both the Liberals and Conservatives outperforming their previous results in the 2021 federal election, with the leftwing New Democratic party collapsing in the region. Supporters of both the Liberals and Conservatives have nonetheless seized on the results to suggest their respective parties are overperforming expectations, despite significant shifts as more votes are counted. Throughout the course of the election, the starkly different messages from two main parties – and the spectre of a looming trade showdown with the United States – have transformed the race into a “presidentialized” vote at the expense of opposition parties. Dominic LeBlanc, the minister of international trade and intergovernmental affairs, has said he is still confident the government could win a majority. “There are a lot of votes still to be counted,” the told the CBC. “We should still be very confident in Mr Carney’s campaign,” he said, adding that a majority was a “hope” and that “I think it’s realistic”. Earlier the broadcaster declared LeBlanc, who had been seen as a leadership contender when Trudeau stepped down, had held on to his riding of Beauséjour with 60% of the vote. MP Wayne Long, who was the first Liberal to call for Justin Trudeau to resign as leader last year, says Mark Carney has been “the difference maker” as CBC declared he had held onto his riding of Saint John-Kennebecasis in New Brunswick with 61.5% of the vote. Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and of England, was a “great blood pressure lowerer” Long told the national broadcaster, adding “I heard it at door after door”. He mentions the tariffs which were imposed on Canada by Donald Trump as also being extremely influential at the ballot box – Saint John was listed by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce as being the most vulnerable to their impacts. A few minutes ago CBC declared its first flip of the evening, as the Conservatives took the riding of Long Range Mountains in Newfoundland and Labrador from the Liberals. Conservative Carol Anstey took the seat with 53%of the vote, while Don Bradshaw of the Liberals trailed on just 39%. Liberal MP Gudie Hutchings had won the seat in 2021 with 44%. Here’s a snapshot of what voters are thinking, courtesy of AFP: With warm spring weather, Canadians lined up outside schools, community centers and other venues in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto to cast ballots. Montreal resident Hamza Fahri, who planned to vote after work, described the election as “unique.” “I wanted to vote for change in Canada. I wanted the Liberals to go, but in the end, I’ll vote for Carney because he is a strong, serious man and that’s what the country needs to face Trump,” the 28-year-old engineer told AFP. In Canada’s largest city Toronto, Conservative supporter Chad McCann said the Liberals “hadn’t really done much for us” over their decade in power. “I think for a strong change, there is no better time than today,” the 37-year-old told AFP. For first-time voter Hilary Recker, getting to the polls was a priority. “I’m just excited to vote,” the 19-year-old Toronto resident said. “Hopefully it doesn’t end up like the (United) States and I don’t get disappointed.” CBC’s decision desk has called another five seats. Canada’s national broadcaster declared that the Liberals had held the ridings of Avalon, Acadie-Bathurst, Cape Spear and Beauséjour while the Conservatives have held the seat of Central Newfoundland. MP Clifford Small, a Conservative who first won Central Newfoundland in 2021 and won 60% of the vote this time round, told the broadcaster he expected the Conservatives to double their seat count and said the “blue wave had started”. The Elections Canada website appears to be unavailable right now. The Toronto Star reports that it has confirmed technical problems and that official results being used by news websites via a back-end process are still operational. The agency responsible for administering the country’s elections says it is working to restore full access as soon as possible. At 8.15pm in Ottawa just over 11% of the vote has been counted and we have the Liberals leading – not officially elected – with a projected 14 seats in the House of Commons and the Conservatives on 11. You can follow all the latest results on our election tracker here. CBC has declared its first winner of the evening, with Philip Earle of the Liberals winning the riding of Labrador in the east of the country with almost 62% of the vote. His nearest rival, Ella Wallace of the Conservatives, won just 31%. This is Helen Livingstone taking over the blog from my colleague Léonie Chao-Fong. Polls are beginning to close in Canada as voters nationwide headed to the polls to decide whether to extend the Liberal party’s decade in power or hand control to the Conservative party. Here’s a recap of the latest developments: Polls have now closed in Newfoundland, Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. The first results are coming in. Voters can still cast their ballot if they are in line when polls close. A record 7.3 million people had already cast their ballots in advance polls before election day, according to Elections Canada. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters. Donald Trump threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty on the eve of the election, describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”. In a Truth Social post, the US president urged Canada to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre responded to Trump’s threat by urging him to “stay out of our election”. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” the Conservative leader posted on X. Liberal leader Mark Carney, also in an apparent reference to Trump, said “this is Canada – and we decide what happens here.” In a video posted on X, the Liberal leader referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs. Election day falls on a day of mourning after 11 people were killed and dozens of others injured when a driver ploughed a car into a crowd at a street festival in Vancouver on Saturday evening. The polls have now closed in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. Prime minister and Liberal party leader Mark Carney is reminding voters that they can still cast their ballot if they are in line when polls close. “Your vote matters,” Carney writes in a post on X. Polls are now closed in Newfoundland and Labrador. The first results are expected to be available shortly. It was the middle of the night when the Bloc Québécois realized they had achieved the improbable. For weeks, the separatist party in Canada’s Francophone province had been campaigning hard to steal an electoral district in Montreal long held by the Liberals. When the trickle of votes finally stopped on that September evening, the Bloc’s Louis-Philippe Sauvé had emerged victorious by a narrow margin of 200 votes. Chastened by the loss, the then prime minister, Justin Trudeau, admitted his Liberals had “a lot of work to do”. The defeat reflected a governing party in tatters and a leader losing his grip on power. And to party faithful, the Bloc’s win reflected an excitement that the separatist movement was once again in ascendance. Six months later, the heady days of the Bloc’s growing popularity are over. Donald Trump’s effort to trash his country’s relationship with Canada has led to a dramatic realigning of allegiances, with a swell in Canadian pride washing over regional differences. Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Pollsters gave the Tories a 99% chance of winning if an election were called at the time with one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades. But Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election: the Conservative’s dominant lead has disappeared and now they find themselves trailing in the twilight of the campaign. Of the 12 polling firms in Canada surveying voters, all of them show the Liberals leading to the extent that a majority government is the most likely outcome. The math looks even more dire for the Conservatives, with the Liberals enjoying a domain lead in the most vote-rich parts of the country. Only one Canadian adult is legally barred from voting from today’s federal election: Stéphane Perrault, the country’s chief electoral officer and the head of Elections Canada. According to Elections Canada: The Chief Electoral Officer is responsible for the administration of elections, referendums and other important aspects of our electoral system. Perrault was appointed to the post in 2018. Canada’s former prime minister Jean Chrétien has predicted the Liberals will win a majority government after polls close tonight. Chrétien, 91, said he expects “to celebrate the majority government of the Liberal party” during a rally for Ottawa Centre Liberal incumbent Yasir Naqvi, the Canadian Press reported. “Monday is going to be a Liberal sunshine,” he said, drawing cheers. Chrétien led three majority Liberal governments between 1993 and 2003 and has campaigned for the party in dozens of 30 electoral districts across the country as the party seeks to match – or even eclipse – his 1993 landslide victory. The nation’s capital has braved more political turbulence than most can recall in decades with internecine feuds, threats to Canadian sovereignty and political resurrections. But perhaps more devastating for residents of Ottawa has been the cruelty of a drawn out winter, with spring snow squalls and persistently grey skies. And so even on the day of what party leaders have billed as the most important election in a generation, many voters in Ottawa seemed more excited by the weather. On a disconcertingly pleasant spring day that has many celebrating the return of the sun, Liberal leader Mark Carney cast his ballot in the Ottawa neighbourhood where he’s lived for the last 10 years, walking past sprouting daffodils and cautiously flowering trees to a nearby polling station with his family. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, also cast his ballot in Ottawa with his family, where he looks to defend the electoral district he’s held for the last seven terms. But, in protest of the country’s “first past the post” electoral system, activists have added 90 names to the ballot- making the ballot more than a metre long and creating headaches for Elections Canada and the scrutineers. Vote-rich Ontario and neighbouring Quebec promise to be battlegrounds where both parties are looking to either confirm – or rebut – polling that has the Liberals favoured to emerge victorious. Election day in Canada falls on a day of mourning after 11 people were killed and dozens of others injured when a driver ploughed a car into a crowd at a street festival in Vancouver on Saturday evening. The festival, known as Lapu-Lapu Day, is also widely celebrated in the Philippines and honors Datu Lapu-Lapu, the Filipino chieftain who famously defeated Spanish forces in 1521. Many across Canada have set aside time today not only to vote, but to mourn and visit makeshift memorials in honor of the victims. The Public and Private Workers of Canada (PPWC), a trade union based in British Columbia, urged people to “get out and vote” as it says the rights of Canadian workers are “under threat”. “Big corporations and wealthy elites are working harder than ever to influence policy in their favour, often at the expense of working families,” the statement says. “If we stay silent, we risk losing the gains we fought so hard to achieve. If we act, we can elect leaders who will invest in social services and good paying jobs, strengthen labour laws, tackle the climate crisis, and ensure dignity for every worker. “The stakes are too high for any of us to sit this election out.” Prime minister Mark Carney is posting hockey-themed campaign videos on social media, including using the phrase “Elbows up”, a hockey reference describing players using their his elbows to defend themselves and now used to as a pro-Canada sovereignty slogan, as well as a post saying: “Today, we leave everything on the ice.” He also included a video featuring actor Mike Myers in an ice hockey rink. Liberal leader Mark Carney has been spotted casting his vote at a polling station in Ottawa, Ontario. Carney and his wife, Diana Fox Carney, voted in the Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester riding where they are resident. Carney is not running in that riding but instead he is running in Nepean, another suburban Ottawa riding. New Democratic party leader Jagmeet Singh’s own riding of Burnaby Central could be at risk, according to reports. Polls suggest Singh is in a three-way race to hold on to his seat, with polls projecting a Liberal victory in the riding, according to the Canadian press. New Democratic party leader Jagmeet Singh has also responded to Donald Trump’s comments this morning, after the US president once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty. “I hear Trump has something to say about our election,” Singh wrote in a post on X. “He doesn’t choose our future. We do.” He urged voters to “protect what makes Canada, Canada”. Here are some of the latest images from Canada, where voters have been casting their ballots across the country to decide who will form the next government. There is little daylight between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre on issues of Canada’s relationship with the United States. Both have rejected the idea Canada would ever cede its sovereignty. But while both acknowledge a cost of living crisis and housing unaffordability have left Canadians feeling worse off, they have divergent solutions. Poilievre has promised to cut regulations, diminish the role and size of government in order to facilitate homebuilding. Carney, in contrast, is leaning government as a key figure in any wide-scale building effort. Poilievre, a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, has inspired a fervent response from his supporters, who say he has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites. The Tory leader has told supporters he will crack down on crime, toughening sentences for the worst offenders in a move that he admits would breach the country’s charter of rights and freedoms – but promising to use an arcane constitutional mechanism that permits him to do so anyway. Carney has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters from both sides of the political aisle. Conservatives have used his CV in their attacks, alleging he used tax loopholes when chair of the investment firm Brookfield. Carney has also faced criticism from the Conservatives for adopting their own policy proposals, including removing a controversial carbon tax. Five political parties were represented in parliament before the election was called: Liberal party, led by Mark Carney Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet New Democratic party, led by Jagmeet Singh Green party, led by Elizabeth May But this election is essentially a two-man race between Carney, the current prime minister, and Pollievre. Carney, 60, is the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He became prime minister, replacing Justin Trudeau, after winning the race to lead the country’s federal Liberal party last month. Poilievre, 45, has taken his Conservative party from the conventional right to the populist flank. He has been compared to Donald Trump, promising to put Canada first by rebuilding the military and by taking back control of Canada’s borders. Who is eligible to vote? Canadian citizens who are at least 18 years old are eligible to vote today Voters must vote at their assigned polling station. To find out where they can vote, they can check their voter information card Voters must be registered. Those who are not registered can register at their polling station when they go to vote. Voters must prove their identity and address – here are three options to do so Canada’s federal election is really 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously. Those parliamentary elections in Canada are normally held every four years and under federal law, an election is required by October 2025 at the latest. Using a parliamentary system stems from the British or Westminster tradition, the party with the most seats typically forms government. If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation. The unfailing politeness of Canadians is a national character trait recognised the world over, but expats living in the UK who were readying their postal ballots for the elections were in no mood for niceties. “If you mess with Canadians, we’ll hit back,” said Sarah Helppi, a 44-year-old Toronto native turned Londoner who spoke to the Guardian as she posted her ballot for what she called the most important Canadian vote in her lifetime. For Helppi, hitting back against Donald Trump’s import tariffs and threats to annex what he has derisively called the “51st state” meant casting a postal vote in Canada for the first time in the 12 years she has lived in the UK. “I feel united with the Canadian people in trying to find their way out of this,” she said. We want someone to make the hard decisions about how to re-engineer the economy away from the US, and to me that person is [Mark] Carney. “I think it’s quite clear that it’s going to be between Carney and [Pierre] Poilievre this time around,” said Nathalie Cook, a 29-year-old primary school teacher from Ottawa living in London. “It definitely feels like the most important election I’ve ever voted in.” Some voters in Windsor, Ontario, are being redirected to a new polling location after a fire forced the shutdown of a recreation centre that was serving as a federal election polling station. Fire crews were called to WFCU Centre earlier on Monday and people inside were evacuated, Windsor fire and rescue services said. The fire has since been brought under control. Election officials have redirected Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore voters to St Joseph’s high school nearby. Elections Canada is urging voters who plan to head to the polls after work or around dinner time to consider going a little earlier or later. Voters who have a flexible schedule should consider heading to the polling station before lunch or early in the afternoon when polls are typically less busy, it says. The Bloc Québécois leader, Yves-François Blanchet, has been pictured casting his vote in Chambly, Quebec. Blanchet said he expected close battles in Quebec and that it would be “a very interesting evening for people who like politics as much as others like golf or football.” Polls show Bloc Québécois in second place in Quebec with 28% support, after the Liberals at 42% support, according to CTV. Canadians across the country are heading to the polls to cast their votes to decide who will form the next government. The two clear frontrunners are the Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, and the Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Here’s a recap of the latest developments: Polls have opened nationwide with the last polls expected to close at 10pm EDT. Preliminary results are likely to come in tonight or early Tuesday morning. A record 7.3 million people had already cast their ballots in advance polls before election day, according to Elections Canada. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters. The Liberals are the “clear frontrunners” of this election with a 83% chance of victory, according to Canada Sports Betting. The Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, it says. Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election. Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Trump once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty on the eve of the election, describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”. In a Truth Social post, the US president urged Canada to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power. Poilievre responded to Trump’s threat by urging him to “stay out of our election”. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” the Conservative leader posted on X. Carney, also in an apparent reference to Trump, said “this is Canada – and we decide what happens here.” In a video posted on X, the Liberal leader referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs. Canada Sports Betting, a top resource for Canadian betting, has been updated to show the Liberals as the “clear frontrunners” of this election. According to these odds, Liberals have an 83% chance of victory. While the Liberals have seen a slight decline and Conservatives have seen a slight boost in odds in the days leading up to the election, the Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, according to the company. In a short video posted on X, prime minister Mark Carney referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs. Carney says in the video: “I know people are anxious right now. The crisis in the United States doesn’t stop at their borders. “They can become divided and weak. But this is Canada and we decided what happens here. Let’s choose to be united and strong – Canada strong.” Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, along with his wife, Anaida Poilievre, have cast their votes at an Ottawa polling station in Ontario, Canada. Polls are now officially open across Canada. Here are a few images of what voting day looks like. Both liberal prime minister Mark Carney and conservative Pierre Poilievre are still doing some last minute campaigning on social media. Carney posted on X: “It’s time, Canada. Vote #CanadaStrong” along with a campaign video. Poilievre posted on X: “It’s simple: No vote, no change. Bring friends, family and coworkers out to VOTE for Change. Vote Conservative.” Conservative Pierre Poilievre posted on X: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state. “Today Canadians can vote for change so we can strengthen our country, stand on our own two feet and stand up to America from a position of strength.” This post appears to be a response to Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social, where he urged Canadians to make their country the 51st US state. Canada’s sovereignty is considered to be on the ballot thanks to Trump, and Poilievre is likely seeking to distance himself from the controversial US president whom he has praised in the past. Here are some pictures of voters lining up outside a polling station in Toronto, Ontario this morning as Canada votes in the federal election. A record number of people – 7.3 million – have already voted during an early voting period that was held last weekend. That topped the 5.8 million Canadians who voted early at the last federal election in 2021. All ballots in a Canadian federal election are counted by hand in front of witnesses, and the final results are validated over a period of time then made available online. However it usually becomes clear on the night from preliminary results where one party looks as if they are going to achive a majority and form the next government, and who will be prime minister. Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney has arrived at Ottawa’s International airport on election morning. Yesterday he was in Vancouver attending a vigil at the scene of a car ramming attack that killed 11 people and injured dozens at a Filipino heritage festival. Donald Trump issued a statement overnight on the eve of Canada’s election, again threatening the country’s independent sovereignty, and describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”, in another awkward intervention for Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre. Using the Truth Social platform, the US president started by wishing “Good luck to the great people of Canada,” on the eve of the election, and then urged them to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power. He said: Good luck to the great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the world, have your car, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy, and all other businesses, quadruple in size, with zero tariffs or taxes, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st state of the US. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free access with no border. All positives with no negatives. It was meant to be! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the hundreds of billions of dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a state! Poilievre’s party had seemed all set for a significant victory at the Canadian federal election according to polling earlier this year, until Trump began issuing a series of statements threatening Canada’s independence and beginning a trade war between the neighbours, which appeared to revive the fortunes of the Liberal party under recently appointed prime minister Mark Carney. Canada’s Globe and Mail reports that for this election, authorities have sent out a record number of voting packs to overseas voters, including to 20,000 new voters living in the US. Over 100,000 overseas voting kits have been sent out, of which 44,623 had been returned by 26 April. At the last election about 55,000 kits were sent to overseas voters. Earlier this month my colleague Leyland Cecco put together this comprehensive guide to today’s poll: Canada elections – who are the key players and what is at stake? In a country that spans multiple time zones, the windows of voting are set so that results can be arrived at mostly at the same time across the board. The voting windows are as follows: Newfoundland time: 8.30am to 8.30pm Atlantic time: 8.30am to 8.30pm Eastern time: 9.30am to 9.30pm Central time: 8.30am to 8.30pm Mountain time: 7.30am to 7.30pm Pacific time: 7am to 7pm Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Pollsters gave the Tories a 99% chance of winning if an election were called at the time with one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades. But Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has seemingly changed all that: the Conservatives’ dominant lead has disappeared and they found themselves trailing during the twilight of the campaign. Five parties were represented in Canada’s parliament at the point this election was called. Mark Carney’s Liberal party held 153 seats, shy of an overall majority. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party had 120 seats, and formed the official opposition party. Bloc Québécois had 33 seats, the New Democrats (NDP) 24 seats, and the Green party held two seats. There were three independent seats and some vacancies. Canadians are heading to the polls in a federal election overshadowed by fury at Donald Trump’s threats to the country’s sovereignty and fears over his escalating trade war. In the final days of a month-long campaign – described by all party leaders as the most consequential general election in a lifetime – the US president yet again re-inserted himself into the national discussion, with fresh threats to annex the country. Also overshadowing the final day of electioneering was a deadly attack at a bustling street festival in Vancouver that left the country reeling and forced the prime minister, Mark Carney, to briefly suspend his campaign. As recently as January, Canadian pollsters and political pundits struggled to find fresh ways to describe the bleak prospects for the then prime minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, which seemed on track for a catastrophic blowout. The party trailed the rival Conservatives by as many as 27 points in some polls. The Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, was poised for the largest and most resounding electoral victory in more than half a century. That strength was the result of a laser-focused, years-long campaign to weaken the governing Liberals and the parties that supported their minority government. But Trump’s detonation of the US’s closest diplomatic and economic relationship has fundamentally reshaped how many feel about their southern neighbour and heavily influenced how Carney, the former central banker who inherited control of the Liberal party in mid March, has shaped his electoral bid. That framing has the possibility of producing a result that would have been unfathomable three months ago. Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of today’s crucial election in Canada, as polls open to determine who leads the country, with Liberal leader Mark Carney facing off against the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre to see who will emerge as prime minister … Carney, prime minister since March, has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters Poilievre is seen as a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, whose supporters say has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites After the resignation of Justin Trudeau earlier in the year, and with the Conservative party riding high in the polls, all the signs were that the Liberals’ near-decade in power would come to an end. However, the dramatic interventions of US president Donald Trump into Canadian politics has upended the election Canada’s federal election consists of 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously. If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation A record 7.3 million people have already cast their ballots over four days of advanced voting. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters